Reading the auction calendar
Primary auctions are where price discovery happens for government paper. Watching the cut-off vs. expectation tells you how the market is positioned.
Devolvement on primary dealers is a stress signal — it means demand fell short and the underwriting syndicate had to absorb the issue.
What retail should actually track
For most retail investors, the auction calendar matters less than the cumulative borrowing trajectory.
If the government overshoots its borrowing target, expect yields to drift higher regardless of the policy stance.